Dear readers
Here is the digest for October 30, 2004

1- Arafat Arrived to France Conscious and in Good Shape
2- In the Absence of Arafat



1- Arafat Arrived to France Conscious and in Good Shape
IMEMC & Agencies, October 30, 2004

Associated Press quoted a Palestinian official, speaking on condition
of anonymity, as saying that there was a strong possibility that
Arafat was suffering from leukemia.

"It looks like it's leukemia, they are trying to find out if in fact
it is leukemia, and if so, what type." The official said.

Arafat's platelet count went up after his transfusion but his
physicians did not know whether that improvement was permanent, the
official added.

The same source said that Arafat could remain in France for four to
five weeks.

French doctors need Few days of medical tests before deciding on the
reason behind the abnormal low count of blood platelets that
Palestinian President Yasser Arafat suffers.

According to French Defense Ministry source, Specialists at the Percy
hospital in France started a series of medical tests on Friday.

Palestinian diplomatic source said Friday that Arafat arrived in
France conscious and in good shape.

"We are very relieved that he was able to travel, that he arrived in
good shape and was conscious. I talked to him," Leila Shahid, the PA's
envoy to Paris, said.

On behalf of Arafat, Shahid thanked President Jacques Chirac for
allowing him to be treated in France.

Arafat: 'God willing, I will come back'

Palestinian President Yasser Arafat landed in Paris on Friday
afternoon and boarded a helicopter to a military hospital outside the
French capital for medical treatment.

Jordanian helicopters transported Arafat from Ramallah to Amman. From
there, he flew to a military airfield near Paris aboard a military
plane equipped with a medical team.

French Defense Ministry said at least a dozen police cars were parked
in front of the Hospital distraction des Armies de Percy, southwest of
Paris.

Percy, a military hospital with a major trauma center, also
specializes in the treatment of blood disorders.

Palestinian President Yasser Arafat left Ramallah at about 7:20 Friday
morning for the first time in more than two years.

Amid tears and chants of bystanders, Arafat boarded the Jordanian
helicopter in military uniform.

After landing in Amman, Arafat was carried by doctors on a wheelchair
to a waiting French presidential jet.

"God willing, I will come back," Arafat told aides shortly before the
plane departed for Paris.

Arafat in Way to Paris, Abbas is the Likely Temporary Replacement

In few minutes, a Jordanian helicopter will move Palestinian President
Yasser Arafat to Jordan where 2 French airplanes, one of them prepared
as a flying hospital, will move Arafat to a military hospital in
France.

The decision to move Arafat to a well equipped hospital was made by hi
team of doctors late Thursday night, and was made possible by Israeli
Prime minister Ariel Sharon's announcement that Israel will allow
Arafat to come back to Ramallah after completing his medical treatment
abroad.

But, Israel apparently acted on the assumption that Arafat is
terminally ill, meaning the issue of his return might never arise.

"From our standpoint, he is dead politically, even if he is not dead
physically," said an Israeli defense ministry official.

In order to deny rumors that the President was in a coma state,
Palestinian leaders allowed reporters to broadcast photos of Arafat
sitting with a group of his medical team. Arafat looked pale and week,
but was joking and smiling.

So far, Arafat's main advisor Nabil Abu-Rudeinah dismissed media
reports about forming a three member committee to takeover Arafat's
responsibilities in his absence.

Reports that a committee of former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas,
Current Prime minister Ahmed Qurei, and either the head of the
palestinian national council (PNA) Salim Zanoun or the head of the
Palestinian legislative council (PLC) Raouhi Fatouh was appointed to
run the Palestinian Authority affairs were widely circulated.

In the absence of a Palestinian vice-president, the Palestinian
constitution states that the head of the PLC, in this case Raouhi
Fatouh, replaces the president in case it is decided that the later is
unable to fulfill the duties of his position.

Yet, Fatouh is not a known prominent leader to be able to fulfill the
duties of the central leader of the PA.

Internal PA unofficial sources said Thursday that it is more likely
for Mahmoud Abbas, who acts as the executive secretary of the PLO
executive committee and considered to be second in rank after Arafat,
to take the responsibilities of the president, with Ahmed Qurei
continuing with his duties as a prime minister.

Such arrangements are possible if approved by the Palestinian
legislative council, which is expected to be soon called to convene to
decide on the issue, and likely to be accepted on the bases that the
Palestinian constitution requires the PA to act under the leadership
of the PLO.

The main obstacle lies inside Fatah's central committee. Abbas,s while
in office, stepped into a serious crisis with Fatah's main decision
making body, which ultimately led to his resignation.

From his side, Hamas leader in Gaza Ismael Haneiah called for
establishing a unified leadership, which represents all the
palestinian political factions, to run public affairs in the absence
of Arafat.

Even when Haneiah's proposal has been under consideration for a while,
it is unlikely that the PA leaders would accept to introduce such a
radical change in the leadership level at the moment.



2- In the Absence of Arafat
Analysis Andoni-IMEMC, October 30, 2004

Israeli analysts are busy setting scenarios for the "after Arafat
era". Already criteria to judge the newly expected leadership
performance has been laid out. Names have been assigned positions, and
proposals to re-evaluate military and political plans are have been
presented.

Israeli political and army officials have clearly stated that they
work on the assumption that Arafat is dead, if not physically then
politically. Based on these assumptions, assurances were made that the
Palestinian leader would be allowed to return back to Ramallah after
completing his treatment.

Beyond any doubt, the absence of Arafat will have an earthquake effect
on Palestinians in particular and the Middle East in general.

A leader who became a symbol of Palestinian nationalism for the past
40 years, who managed to unify Palestinians around him, who stands as
the first democratically elected president, and who holds absolute
power and authority, can't simply and quietly fade away for others to
replace.

Needless to say, the work to replace Arafat did not start with his
recent illness. The need to marginalize Arafat was introduced by the
Israeli right wing in order to avoid negotiations, especially under
the road map umbrella, which Israel approved with 14 conditions that
succeeded in destroying the bases of the Quartet brokered peace plan.
President Arafat was also marginalized by the United States
Administration in a naive attempt to search for another "Karzi" or
"Alawi" in Palestine.

Concerted efforts from the side of Israel and the United States
portrayed the national leader of Palestinians as a persona-non-gratta,
an obstacle to peace, and a promoter of violence and "terror."

The way Arafat was treated was hypocritical. Arafat did not arrive to
the West Bank and Gaza from the lecture rooms of Western universities.
He arrived and was welcomed with open arms. This is not surprising
given that Arafat is the recognized leader of armed resistance groups
who fought against Israel for about 30 years.

The Palestinian leader repeatedly and openly stated that he is working
for a Palestinian state geographically defined the June 4 the 1967
borders.

Apparently, his high level of independence in decision making did not
mach the expectations of neither Israel nor the United States. His
refusal to give into pressure and accept the Camp David 2000 proposed
deal was the straw that broke the camel's back. Since that time
efforts to marginalize Arafat have never seized.

Politically Arafat enjoys the support of the vast majority of
Palestinians. Nevertheless, most Palestinians are convinced that his
governing style allowed for corruption.

Strangely enough, while Arafat enjoys the support of Palestinians
politically, his hesitation to push for reforms in order to combat
corruption has frustrated both the public and the PA civil and
security institutes.

On the one hand, Palestinians consider Arafat as indispensable,
because he is the only guarantee to prevent the emergence of a "Karzi"
or an "Alawi". On the other hand, the majority of Palestinians are
convinced that reforms, which would evidently force Arafat to share
power, are vitally needed.

Arafat is not only a person and a leader. He represents a school of
thinking-a generation that stood at the forefront of Palestinian
national liberation efforts for years. He has lead a generation of
national pride, but in terms of running public affairs, this
generation has been predominantly exposed to the dictatorial regime
model common in the Arab world.

Experience taught Arafat's generation that when occupation is so
aggressive, negotiations have to be combined with resistance. A new
generation of Palestinians has been forced to face a world that
increasingly views resistance as a form of terror or at least as
having potential to develop in that direction.

In conclusion, the ones who think that replacing Arafat with another
figure would solve their problem are very mistaken. Parties interested
in stability and peace in the Middle East has to pay more attention to
the internal dynamics of Palestinian society.

Arafat's generation prepared the ground for a historical compromise in
which a Palestinian state could be established on 20% of the area
between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River. Only such a compromise
will provide real chances for peace and not attempts to establish an
extra settlement here or there.