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Here is the digest for November 16th, 2004

Barghouthi
Analysis-Ghassan Andoni-IMEMC, November 15, 2004

As his wife Fadwa Bargouthi announced his interest to run for the PA
Chairman position slated for January 19, PA elections, Jailed Fatah
West Bank leader, and Palestinian legislator Marwan Bargouthi 45,
occupied the news headlines.

Bargouthi, whom Palestinians consider as the Palestinian Mandela, but
Israel considers a terrorist, is serving a life term sentence in an
isolated cell inside a well guarded Israeli jail.

In the past few days, media sources reported a possible prisoners'
exchange deal that might include Bargouthi and the jailed in Egypty
Israeli spy Azam Azam. Few media sources even mentioned that Israeli
spy Jonathan Pollard could be included in the reported deal.

Israeli officials were strongly divided over the issue of releasing
Barghouthi. Interior minister Avraham Boraz (Shinui) said that it was
possible in principle, noting past exchange deals in which sentenced
Palestinian prisoners were released. But, suspended interior security
minister Tsachi Hanegbi said that it was only possible for Bargouthi
to run for Palestinian elections after finishing his 100 years
imprisonment term.

Bargouthi intentions to run for PA chairmen from inside his jail,
which is possible according to the Palestinian election by-laws,
surprised Fatah's old guards, who already decided that the President
of the PLO executive committee Mahmoud Abbas will be the only Fatah's
candidate for the PA chairman post.

Even as Abbas denied that Fatah's central committee had decided to
nominate him, exiled Fatah's central committee head Farouk Kadoumi
confirmed the nomination, telling Al-Jazeraa TV "Fatah will have one
candidate for PA Chairman, which is Abbas" when asked about Bargouthi
nomination he said "I am sure if Bargouthi was among us now, he would
have voted for Abbas as well"

The new Palestinian leadership, Abbas and Qurei in particular, are
qualified diplomats and state persons, but unlike late President
Yasser Arafat and the most popular Fatah leader Marwan Barghouthi,
lack the charisma to be popular.

In the presence of Arafat, no one, including Barghouthi, stood as a
serious candidate for the president position. Yet, public opinion
pulls conducted in the past few months clearly signaled a rising
Bargouthi popularity.

In the latest, conducted while Arafat was still around, Arafat came
first with 60% and Bargouthi followed with 12%, all others, including
Abbas, Qurei, and the leaders of Hamas stood shortage of 5%.

Working under the assumption that the Islamic movement will not
nominate a candidate for the PA chairman post, because the post was
introduced by the Oslo accords, which is in principle rejected by the
Islamic movement, it was considered safe to present Abbas as Fatah's
nominee for the position.

Yet, if Hamas changes stance and decided to run for the post,
Barghouthi will become indispensable for Fatah to be able to stay in
power.
While Hamas is still silent about its intentions, most Palestinian
commentators believe that the Islamic movement will not run for the
chairperson post, but is heavily preparing for legislative and local
authorities elections.

It is believed that Hamas is welling to overlook the proposed January
elections if real steps towards establishing a unified Palestinian
leadership are taken, and if the Islamic movement takes a considerable
share in administrating the Gaza Strip in the aftermath of the
intended Israeli pullout.

Barghouthi is definitely indispensable when it comes to legislative
and local authority elections. Without charismatic leaders like him,
Fatah's chances to obtain a comfortable majority to run the PA affairs
are questionable.

I believe that the slim chances for a possible Barghouthi release only
exist if the new leadership decides to run legislative elections. At
that point, the international interest in an elected, and at the same
time stable and strong, Palestinian leadership might accumulate enough
pressure to force Israel to release him.
It is contrary to the interest of almost all parties to create a
political situation in which Abbas heads the PA, and at the same time
Hamas controls the Parliament.


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